Canada's Unemployment Rate Hits 7% — What This Means for Real Estate Investors
- Wayne Hillier
- Jun 6
- 3 min read
By Wayne Hillier, Real Estate Investing Masters
June 6, 2025 | Edmonton, Alberta
Canada’s unemployment rate jumped to 7% in May, marking the highest level we've seen outside of the pandemic since 2016. For real estate investors, that number should raise an eyebrow.
While the economy added 8,800 jobs last month, the big picture is more telling than the headline. According to Statistics Canada, full-time employment rose by 58,000 jobs, but that was offset by a sharp drop in part time work, especially in sectors tied to younger or seasonal workers.
And that’s where things start to hit close to home.
Students and Struggles
May is the traditional kickoff to summer job season. But this year, the student unemployment rate soared to 20.1%, a level we haven’t seen since 2009 and 1999 (pandemic years excluded). That’s a full generation of young Canadians now competing for fewer opportunities.
As someone who coaches landlords and investors every day, I know this trend will ripple out fast. If you’re operating rentals near post secondary institutions or relying on seasonal workers to fill your suites, this number should be on your radar. Demand may soften.
Vacancies might rise. Rent delinquency risk could creep up in the younger tenant pool. This will affect 1 and 2 bedroom multifamily units, student rentals and basement suites.
Alberta Caught in the Middle
While the national unemployment rate rose, Alberta continues to hold relatively steady — but cities like Edmonton and Calgary aren't immune to the ripple effects of economic tightening. Windsor’s unemployment rate hit 10.8% and Oshawa’s climbed to 9.1%, largely tied to auto tariffs and manufacturing slowdowns. If U.S. protectionism keeps ramping up, Alberta’s energy and agriculture sectors could feel the squeeze next.
As I always tell my students: the job market and the real estate market are deeply connected. When people lose jobs, they stop qualifying for mortgages. When young people can’t find summer work, they move back home. When companies start laying off staff, demand for rentals shifts from “upgrade” to “survive.” But remember if people aren't buying, then they're renting.
Not a Panic Moment — But a Planning Moment
This is not about fear. It’s about being a responsible investor. Look at your tenant profile. Reassess your risk tolerance. And make sure you’re buying properties that meet the 5% Rule™, our framework for ensuring sufficient cash flow to weather economic storms. Because here's the truth: storms are coming. Maybe not today, but at some point, some part of your portfolio will be tested by job loss, vacancies, or rental arrears. The investors who last are the ones who plan for it before it hits.
What to Watch Next
Wage growth held steady at 3.4%, but with inflation slowing, purchasing power is slightly improving.
Total hours worked were flat in May, which may signal productivity concerns in certain industries.
Employment rose in finance, real estate, and information sectors. Good news for some of us, but declined in manufacturing, transportation, food service, and government.
The economy is shifting. Smart investors adjust.
Listen to Today’s Episode:
Real Estate Investing Morning Show – Hosted by Wayne & Gabby Hillier
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